The development of the technology forecasting model within the enterprise

[J. Petković]

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Menadžment tehnološkog razvoja - Tehnološko predviđanje / Management of technological development - Technology forecasting

Predmet istraživanja ovog rada je analiza različitih metoda tehnološkog predviđanja u preduzeću na osnovu kojih se mogu sagledati objektivne mogućnosti, uslovi, potrebe, efekti i vreme realizacije tehnoloških promena, odnosno uvođenja novih tehnologija. Jedan od ciljeva istraživanja je da se utvrdi model kao osnova za upravljanje tehnologijom u preduzeću kroz sledeće zadatke: sistematizaciju metoda tehnološkog predviđanja u zavisnosti od delatnosti preduzeća, proizvodnog asortimana i karakteristične organizacione strukture; klasifikaciju metoda u zavisnosti od nivoa menadžmenta i tipa odlučivanja. Rad će ukazati na postojeću primenu modela tehnološkog predviđanja u konkretnom preduzeću koji se zasniva na kvalitativnim metodama i ugrađuje ekspertska znanja, kao i na odnos razvijenog modela i upravljanja tehnologijom u preduzeću. Disertacija potvrđuje opšte hipoteze: 1. Tehnološko predviđanje je oblast od velikog značaja za strateški menadžment organizacije, 2. Razvoj modela tehnološkog predviđanja primerenog konkretnim uslovima i specifičnostima organizacije od posebnog je značaja za širu primenu tehnološkog predviđanja u praksi. U disertaciji je na osnovu analize obimne građe dostupne domaće i inostrane literature urađena sistematizacija postojećih znanja u oblasti tehnološkog predviđanja. Disertacija kroz dalje istraživanje donosi nova saznanja predstavljanjem rezultata istraživanja kojim smo proverili aktuelnu situaciju u vezi sa tehnološkim predviđanjem u praksi u Srbiji kao i predstavljanjem rezultata empirijskih istraživanja tehnološkog predviđanja u konkretnom preduzeću. Početni model tehnološkog predviđanja je proveren i verifikovan na odabranom realnom primeru sprovedenog tehnološkog predviđanja u domaćem preduzeću. Na osnovu dobijenih saznanja, razvijen je novi model tehnološkog predviđanja. Predloženi model se može koristiti kao osnova za identifikovanje faza tehnološkog predviđanja u konkretnom preduzeću i predlaganje potrebnih menadžment akcija u funkciji uspešnog upravljanja tehnologijom. Rezultati istraživanja i razvijeni model tehnološkog predviđanja stvaraju osnovu za kvalitetnije upravljanje, ali i za dalja istraživanja u ovoj oblasti...

This paper focuses on analysis of various methods of technology forecasting within an enterprise that help in perceiving real possibilities, conditions, needs, effects and time of realization of technology changes, i.e. introduction of new technologies. One of the goals of this survey is to set a model as a groundwork for technology management within enterprise through following tasks: systematization of technology forecasting methods depending on company profile, product range, characteristic organizational structure; and method classification depending on the management level and decisionmaking type. This paper will draw attention to existing application of technology forecasting models within a conrete enterprise based on quality methods and introduces expert knowledge, as well as to relation between the developed model and technology management in the company. The dissertation confirms the general hypotheses: 1. Technology forecasting is a field of great importance for strategic management of an organization, 2. The development of technologyforecasting model that applies to specific conditions and organization specificities is of special importance for the application of technology forecasting in practice. The dissertation deals with systematization of existing knowledge in the field of technology forecasting based on analysis of comprehensive material available in both domestic and foreign literature. Through further investigation, this dissertation brings new findings by introducing the results of investigation that we used to check the actual situation regarding technology forecasting in practice in Serbia, and also by presenting the results of empiric reaserch on technology forecasting in concrete enterprise. The initial model of technology forecasting is tested and veryfied on the selected real example of conducted technology forecasting in domestic company. Based on these findings, a new model of technology forecasting has been developed. The suggested model could be used as a groundwork for identifying the phases of technology forecasting in concrete enterprise, and for suggesting necessary management actions with the goal of successful technolgy management. The research results and developed technology forecasting model provide a groundwork for better quality management, as well as for further researches in this field...

tehnološko predviđanje, metode tehnološkog predviđanja, menadžment tehnologije, model

technnology forecasting, technology forecasting methods, technology management, model

005.5

Tehnološko predviđanje

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