Development of methodology for the reconstruction of missing monitoring data and forecasting of the exploitation regime of groundwater sources

[J. Ratković]

185 str.

Geološko inženjerstvo - Hidrogeologija / Geological Engineering - Hydrogeology

Podzemne vode predstavljaju dragocen prirodni resurs neophodan za opstanak živog sveta i koriste se u svim oblastima života i delovanja ljudi. Republika Srbija spada u zemlje koje su bogate podzemnim vodama s obzirom na površinu svoje teritorije koju obuhvata i najveći deo vodosnabdevanja stanovništa vodom za piće se obezbeđuje zahvatanjem ovog resursa. Imajući u vidu potencijalnost Republike Srbije, glavni zadatak inženjera hidrogeologije predstavlja plansko i održivo upravljanje ovim resursom, kako bi se omogućilo njegovo očuvanje u kvalitativnom i kvantitativnom smislu i za buduće generacije. S obzirom na važnost očuvanja podzemnih voda izradom doktorske disertacije razvijena je metodologija koja uključuje primenu Sivog modela i Sivo-stohastičkog modela za rešavanje problema nedostatka dovoljno pouzdanih ulaznih podataka za potrebe analize kvantitativnog režima podzemnih voda, tj. nedostatka kontinuiranog monitoringa podzemnih voda, a samim tim i rešavanje dugoročnog i stabilnog upravljanja ovim resursom. Primenom metodologije vrši se rekonstrukcija/prognoza podataka koji nedostaju, a verifikacija dobijenih rešenja sprovodi se upotrebom definisanih kriterijuma za ocenu tačnosti, kako bi se došlo do zaključaka o njenoj validnosti i mogućnosti primene. Razvijena metodologija, koja predstavlja krajnji rezultat dugogodišnjeg naučnog istraživanja, sastoji se od postupnog dolaženja do krajnjeg rešenja primenom Autoregresivnog modela, Sivog modela, Sivo-stohastičkog modela i Biplot metode. Rezultati naučno istraživačkog rada su u domaćoj i međunarodnoj naučnoj zajednici verifikovani i prihvaćeni publikovanjem u dva rada. Razvijena metodologija je primenjena u oblasti hidrogeologije koja je na primeru dva test područja dala rezultate rekonstrukcije i prognoze kvantitativnih parametara režima podzemnih voda visokog stepena tačnosti. Na osnovu rezultata, prikazanih u ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji, dokazano je da razvijena metodologija ima i naučni i praktični doprinos u oblasti hidrogeologije.

Groundwater represents a valuable natural resource essential for the survival of the living world and is used in all areas of human life and activity. The Republic of Serbia belongs to the countries that are rich in underground water, considering the territory it covers, and the largest part of the population's water supply with drinking water is provided by the exploitation of this resource. Given the potential of the Republic of Serbia, the main task of hydrogeology engineers is the planned and sustainable management of this resource in order to ensure its preservation in both qualitative and quantitative terms for future generations. Considering the importance of groundwater conservation, a methodology was developed through a doctoral dissertation, which includes the application of the Grey model and the Grey- stochastic model to address the issue of the lack of sufficiently reliable input data needed for the analysis of the quantitative regime of groundwater, i.e. the lack of continuous groundwater monitoring, and consequently, to solve the problem of long-term and stable management of this resource. By applying the methodology, reconstruction/forecasting of missing data is performed, and the verification of the obtained solutions is carried out using defined criteria for accuracy assessment, in order to reach conclusions about its validity and the possibility of application. The developed methodology, which represents the result of many years of scientific research, consists of gradual approach to the final solution by applying the Autoregressive Model, the Grey Model, the Grey-Stochastic Model and the Biplot method. The results of the scientific research work were verified and accepted by the domestic and international scientific community by publishing two papers. The developed methodology was applied in the field of hydrogeology, which, on the example of two test areas, provided the results of the reconstruction and forecasting of the quantitative parameters of the underground water regime with a high degree of accuracy. Based on the results presented in this doctoral dissertation, it has been proven that the developed methodology makes both a scientific and practical contribution to the field of hydrogeology.

izvorišta podzemnih voda, Sivi model, Sivo-stohastički model, monitoring, upravljanje podzemnim vodama

groundwater sources, Grey Model, Grey-Stochastic Model, monitoring, groundwater management.

556.34:519.24(043.3)

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